Xiaomi's Trillion-Dollar Question: Is It a Bubble?
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- July 19, 2025
In the world of technology and innovation, few phrases carry the weight and resonance of "When standing on the edge of the wind, even a pig can fly," famously articulated by Lei Jun, the founder of XiaomiThis mantra emerged at a time when Xiaomi was just emerging onto the scene, giving insight into not only the ambition of the company but also a broader philosophy that seems to define the trajectory of success in today's rapid market changes.
Fast forward a decade, and Xiaomi has not only endured but has thrived amid evolving trends—from smartphones to the expansive Internet of Things (IoT), electric vehicles, and now artificial intelligence (AI). The company has seemingly positioned itself at each significant juncture in the technology landscape, exemplifying a profound adaptability that keeps them in tune with the latest advancements.
As of February 4, Xiaomi achieved a market value exceeding one trillion yuan, marking a remarkable milestone since its inceptionFor the company, this achievement reflects not just a financial victory, but serves as a testament to Lei Jun's vision and the return on investment for its stakeholders.
Following this accomplishment, Xiaomi's market capitalization continued on an upward trajectory, now stabilizing at over 1.2 trillion yuan, indicating strong resilience and a secure footing in a volatile marketplace.
However, the question arises: amid this meteoric rise, is there a bubble, and can Xiaomi sustain its dominance moving forward? This inquiry leads us to explore how Xiaomi has maintained momentum while many other companies have struggled to retain their market status.
The notion of riding the "wind," as suggested by Lei Jun, may have first dawned on him in 2005, during a formative period in the tech industryAt that time, the internet revolution was underway, but Lei was deeply engrossed in developing WPS Office, a project aimed at challenging Microsoft's dominance in office software.
Despite the eventual success of WPS and a subsequent Hong Kong IPO for his company, Kingsoft, Lei found himself reflecting on missed opportunities in the broader internet boom that was reshaping the technological landscape
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Although Kingsoft carved out a significant niche in software, it lagged in market value and revenue when compared to titans like Alibaba, Baidu, and Tencent—collectively known as BAT in China.
By 2007, just two months after Kingsoft's public listing, Lei Jun left his roles as President and CEO, setting the stage for the launch of Xiaomi three years laterWith Xiaomi, Lei opted for a markedly different approach than during his Kingsoft years, where every critical decision centered on leveraging the hottest trends in technology.
A pivotal moment arrived in 2007 with the launch of the first iPhone, heralding the era of mobile internetFollowing suit, Google unveiled Android in 2008, and Apple's iPhone 4S and Samsung's Galaxy S further fueled this burgeoning marketRecognizing the momentum, Xiaomi seized the opportunity to debut its first operating system, MIUI, one year later.
Over the subsequent year, MIUI underwent significant iterations, culminating in the launch of the Xiaomi Mi 1, a groundbreaking product priced at 1999 yuanMedia reports indicate that the Mi 1 saw astonishing success, with an initial stock of 300,000 units selling out within 22 hours of its release and ultimate sales reaching as high as 7.9 million unitsFollowing this success, Xiaomi continued its upward trend with subsequent phone releases, recording impressive sales numbers: Mi 2 at 17.52 million, Mi 3 at 14.41 million, Redmi 1 at 4.46 million, and Redmi Note at 2.743 million.
While it's undeniable that Xiaomi's smartphone success hinged on superior product quality, the timing aligned with the expansion of 3G networks ushering in a wave of device upgradesAccording to iResearch Consulting, the mobile internet sector reached a staggering 202 billion yuan in scale that year, with a growth rate of 31% and a user base expansion to 303 million users, reflecting a 30% year-on-year increase.
Looking back, it's evident that Xiaomi's remarkable journey, from launching smartphones to embracing IoT, and more recently, electric vehicles and AI, all stemmed from identifying and capitalizing on pivotal market trends
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This strategic foresight is what ultimately contributed to Xiaomi's current valuation surpassing one trillion yuan.
Yet, amid this significant growth, concerns over market sustainability lingerLei Jun's words about pigs flying in the wind have become commonplace in discussions about companies that rise sharply on trendy innovations only to falter when those trends waneThe A-share market in China has seen its share of "meme stocks" riding similar waves, often disappearing just as quickly due to a lack of substance behind initial momentumHowever, Xiaomi's trajectory diverges significantly.
Instead of merely chasing trends, Xiaomi demonstrated a commitment to substantive action and ongoing investment, which has given them a robust foundation to withstand market fluctuationsA prime example is the MIUI system—while countless manufacturers rushed to create their operating systems, Xiaomi differentiated itself by continuously iterating and refining MIUI post-launch.
In fact, Xiaomi innovated a pioneering development model that embraced user feedback, resulting in rapid product iterationsThanks to a dedicated release schedule, with weekly updates, the MIUI garnered a loyal user base and laid the groundwork for Xiaomi smartphones' explosive growth.
Moreover, Xiaomi's ambitions have not been limited to smartphones; their foray into the automotive industry demonstrates similar proactive investment strategiesLeading up to its car manufacturing announcement, Xiaomi had already allocated considerable resources and made extensive investments across the automotive supply chainTheir efforts began in 2015 with initial investments in NIO, followed by further engagement with XPeng in 2017, marking a consistent focus on car innovation.
By the time Xiaomi revealed its commitment to car manufacturing, it had completed 52 automobile-related investments totaling over 26.2 billion yuan
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