The semiconductor industry is undergoing significant transformations as international giants unveil their financial results, revealing a clearer picture for the semiconductor market in 2024. This year has been marked by soaring revenues and shifts in market dynamics that have substantial implications for the future of technology.

Recent initial statistics from Gartner suggest that total global semiconductor revenue for the year 2024 is projected to reach an impressive $626 billion, showing a robust growth of 18.1% year-on-yearFurthermore, the projections for 2025 indicate the revenue could soar to $705 billion, highlighting the recovery and growth potential of this critical sector.

The competitive landscape among the top semiconductor companies is also shifting rapidlyNotably, those with artificial intelligence (AI) related businesses have experienced remarkable advancements in their rankingsCompanies like Nvidia have jumped from the edges of the top ten list three years ago to now secure the third position globally in revenueIn contrast, firms focused primarily on power semiconductors have struggled amid the declining markets for automotive and industrial chips, resulting in several crucial players tumbling out of the top ten rankings.

The market differs significantly from 2023, marked by a widespread downturnIn 2024, a rebound is evident, driven by several key terminal marketsIndustry insiders anticipate that aside from AI, which represents a certain growth market, sectors such as smartphones and PCs—which account for a significant portion of semiconductor demand—are also showing signs of gentle recoveryThe automotive market, previously under intense pressure, is projected to heat up in the latter half of the year.

Meanwhile, looking closely at the AI sector, it becomes apparent that differentiation among AI chip makers is emergingAlthough the overall automotive chips market is witnessing a decline, certain manufacturers still achieve growth in this atmosphere

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This phenomenon merits careful consideration of the underlying factors contributing to these dialectics.

Since the explosive rise of ChatGPT, the demand for AI-related computing and server chips has gradually overshadowed that for mobile phone chips, establishing them as the predominant downstream end-user market in the current semiconductor landscapeThis shift is prompting rapid changes in the rankings of leading companies.

A retrospective analysis from 2021 to 2022 shows Nvidia oscillating between entering and exiting the global top ten semiconductor firmsHowever, the momentum shifted in 2023, catapulting Nvidia to the fifth position, and its place in the top three in 2024 signifies its vast benefits gleaned from the ongoing AI wave, especially relating to its GPU chips, where Nvidia has monopolized the market.

On the contrary, Intel failed to retain its position as the top revenue generator in 2023, yielding that title to SamsungIntel’s struggle reflects the broader high demand for computational power against the backdrop of an overall growth rate of only 0.1% for the yearA recent quarterly report demonstrated that Intel's earnings fell short, showing consecutive declines over three quartersFurthermore, Gartner highlighted that Intel's advantages in AI PC and the Core Ultra chipset were inadequate to counterbalance the slow growth in AI accelerator products and the x86 business, resulting in its drop to the second position.

Intel’s trials are compounded by significant challenges aheadThere are reports that the company is planning to split off its previously acquired FPGA manufacturer, Altera, in addition to potentially spinning off its wafer foundry and chip design operationsThe market closely watches Intel's attempts at repositioning amidst these shifting dynamics.

Samsung’s return to becoming the leading semiconductor revenue company is because of strategic measures adopted by top storage manufacturers who engaged in price hikes and moderated capacity construction in an effort to realign the sagging storage industry

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Predictions indicated that the storage industry began its upward trajectory early in 2024, comparing favorably against previous expectationsHowever, as consumer demand became more cautious towards the year's end, the storage sector's growth ceased and even regressed.

AI technology has also been a driving force behind this revitalization of the storage industryAnalysts suggest that the variables affecting Nvidia's growth are closely tied to TSMC’s advanced CoWoS packaging technology and the capacity developments of HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) by leading storage manufacturers.

Significantly, the divergence of deployment in HBM business among top storage vendors has led to markedly different development trajectories in 2024. While SK Hynix has increased its revenue by an astonishing 86%, surpassing even Nvidia at 83.6%, Samsung's growth rate of 62.5% falls short comparativelyThis has spotlighted SK Hynix as a leading player in the global semiconductor race.

Having collaborated with AMD to produce the world’s first TSV HBM product as early as 2014, SK Hynix’s proactive moves in the HBM market positioned it favorably amidst the ascent of generative AIIn contrast, both Micron and Samsung adopted divergent strategies, which has allowed SK Hynix to rapidly fulfill Nvidia's demands in DRAM, putting it in contention for market share against Samsung.

Counterpoint’s analysis reveals that Samsung's inability to become the primary HBM solution provider for Nvidia has hindered its competitive edge in the AI server domainEstimations suggest that between 2022 and 2025, Samsung could lose out on market opportunities worth $30 billion to $45 billion, taken by competitors like SK Hynix and TSMC, with Qualcomm and Micron pulling ahead in the edge AI segment.

Market players often refer to AMD and Broadcom as members of the “anti-Nvidia coalition.” AMD focuses on CPU, GPU, and FPGA chip manufacturing, while Broadcom is recognized for custom ASIC chip design services

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However, their growth pace has noticeably lagged behind most AI chipmakers and even QualcommThis trend reflects broader industry challenges tied to product lifecycle management and the exploration of new incremental markets.

For instance, Qualcomm shows strong momentum in the automotive chip market, posting a tremendous 68% year-on-year growth in Q4 of 2024, far surpassing other areas like hardware growth at 12% and IoT at 18%. Nonetheless, revenues have not yet reached the billion-dollar mark within a single quarter, leaving substantial gaps when compared to the other two segments.

AMD, too, has been dealing with its challenges; data center growth has slowed considerably, with an anticipated 7% sequential decline in revenue for Q1 of 2025 due to seasonal factorsAMD’s CEO, Lisa Su, anticipates that 2025’s performance will alternate with new product releases, suggesting an initially lower trajectory peaking later in the year.

Gartner’s research vice president, George Brocklehurst, emphasized that the use of GPUs and AI processors in data center applications is positioned to drive the chip industry in 2024. With escalating demands for AI and generative AI workloads, total semiconductor revenue in data centers is expected to surge from $64.8 billion in 2023 to $112 billion.

Moreover, Brocklehurst predicts that memory and AI chips will aid in recent growth, with HBM’s revenue expected to leap by 66.3% to $19.8 billion by 2025, potentially cementing its share in DRAM revenue to reach 19.2%.

However, this surge in the AI chip supply chain is juxtaposed against struggles faced by other firms that have lost market share and fallen out of the top rankingsThis decline is particularly evident in companies specializing in automotive and industrial segments, which must contend with inventory pressures.

Contrasting the 2023 income rankings of leading semiconductor firms illustrates that several top automotive chip makers have slipped in the rankings, including Texas Instruments and STMicroelectronics, while Infineon, a powerhouse in power semiconductors, has maintained its foothold

This shift indicates subtle changes within the industry’s maneuvering.

IOverall, many of these companies facing headwinds reported challenging experiences in Q4 of 2024. The major downstream markets for power semiconductors—comprising automotive, industrial, and communication—are enduring a downturnWhile the automotive sector thrived in 2023 due to electrification and smart technology trends, 2024 has brought a consumption slowdown outside China, tightening market conditionsThis has left many still grappling with outstanding inventory issues.

As a result, fluctuations among power semiconductor firms’ market shares are closely tied to their business layouts across various regions and perceptions toward growth segments, such as silicon carbideAccording to Infineon’s report, for Q1 of the 2025 fiscal year, revenues hit $3.42 billion, leading to a year-on-year drop of 8% and a sequential decrease of 13%.

Infineon forecasts a growth in revenues by 5.1% for the upcoming quarter while acknowledging the ongoing inventory adjustments within the automotive and industrial sectorsThey retain an optimistic viewpoint, assuming that automotive demand will stabilize moving forward, even amid persistent macroeconomic challenges, indicating expectations for a cautious recovery with uneven progress across major automobile markets in Europe, Japan, South Korea, and North America.

Texas Instruments also reported a decline of 2% year-over-year and 3% quarter-over-quarter, with varying performance across terminal markets like industrial, automotive, consumer electronics, enterprise systems, and communication devices.

STMicroelectronics recorded a net income drop of 22.4% year-on-year, revealing a bleak outlook as pressures in the European automotive market lingerThey anticipate continued adherence to electrification and digitization trends in the automotive sector, which is crucial amidst a forecasted 23.2% overall revenue decline for 2024, stemming from significant drops in their industrial market segment and slight declines within the automotive sphere.

Among the alternatives outside of traditional silicon, silicon carbide is emerging as a rare segment with growth, especially in the automotive chip market

Infineon revealed its accelerated growth momentum in partnerships with various Chinese automotive OEMs, signaling a strategic pivot towards this fast-expanding market.

The CEO of STMicroelectronics noted that their silicons carbide product segment is forecasted to generate $1.1 billion in revenues throughout 2024, reflecting increasing engagements with domestic automotive manufacturers as demand surges in China—the fastest-growing electric vehicle market globally.

Sigmaintell’s senior analyst Tao Yang indicated that while generic MCU and traditional automotive chips confront intense inventory pressures, power chips, high-performance automotive memory chips, and sensors linked to intelligent driving systems remain in high demandMarket adjustments are expected to stabilize by the end of 2025, marking a crucial inflection point for the automotive chip market as inventory levels align closer to historical averages.